Exponential power

‘The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function’ said scientist Albert Bartlett.

I’ve just added bold-type in my previous post: ‘We’re looking at about 1 million US cases [infected by the virus] by the end of April, 2 million by ~May 5; 4 million by ~May 11, and so on. Exponentials are hard to grasp, but this is how they go’.

To illustrate why people aren’t taking the virus seriously, watch this brief lesson by Chris Martenson explaining exponential power.

Published in: on March 7, 2020 at 6:51 pm  Comments (32)  

32 Comments

  1. The only thing assuredly ‘exponential’ about this entire calamity is the amount of emotional cripples and fear-junkies ready to buy into well crafted opinion pieces – the overwhelming garbage out there being spewed from all sides and from all angles!
    All communicable diseases have the ability to spread exponentially but will only kill those who have severely compromised immune systems.
    One such disease, seasonal influenza, accounted for 35 million illnesses in the U.S. alone.
    Even if Covid 19 gets to that level propagandists still cannot claim some sort of unique epidemic.
    As usual, fear and ignorance will be the driver in this race to dependence and servitude.

    • The coronavirus might mutate and won’t be as lethal as the Spanish flu, but it looks like you’ve not watched Martenson’s videos…

    • If it’s “just a flue, bro”, then why has China shut down its entire economy? They would realistically only welcome the dying of their old.

      And who do you mean by “propagandists”? The media have been soothing the fears throughout. It’s the common people that have been fear-mongering. And it’s the markets that have taken a very real hit so far.

      “Compromised immune systems”? That’s still a lot of bodies to burn in a short span of time. Fingers crossed, Trump will die, too.

      • I guess what he would mean by “compromised immune systems” is that the vaccines, (said by Jon himself) which have already been pumped into the pregnant mother, thus resulting in a baby that gets weaker breastmilk and is weaker himself. I don’t exactly know what to say to this, only that I don’t think 95% of people have “compromised immune systems” or something…

  2. I’ve watched them.
    Not convincing – too superficial.
    They, like so many others, conceitedly substitute what could happen with what will happen.
    Martenson’s videos are but a few of the well-crafted opinion pieces that have a superficial appeal which satisfies those who are afraid to seek a balanced approach.
    Why not try looking at the ongoing reports of Jon Rappoport at No More Fake News for a dissenting opinion? He convincingly offers other more pertinent ulterior motives.

    • Let’s wait until May and see who’s wrong: Martenson or your sources…

    • I have looked up Jon Rappoport, and what do I see?

      “The Matrix Revealed: The collective experiment on planet Earth”

      “I was previously selling this course for $375”

      “A virus whose very existence is doubt… air pollution can account for all the effects of the so-called virus”

      Your sources seem to be patently insane. And he’s also talking the boring talk about the evil omnipotent rich. Yawn.

      • Typical. Your cognitive dissonance kicks in before you even click on the site so you read just enough to post a flippantly ‘cool’ reply.

        Before you start playing ‘my expert is better than yours’ in the sandbox be advised that your maven has unsuccessfully predicted stock market crashes since 2010, supported (and got rich from) the now defunct ‘peak oil’ collapse theory, sells books as well and hawks gold and silver to the Chicken Little crowd.

        Also be reminded that ninety-nine percent of the western world consider the contents of this (TWDH) and similar sites to be ‘insane’, not to mention evil and heretical so I pay little to no regard to uninformed critiques and ad hominems.

        Enjoy the panic and get rich videos!

      • Fuck off…

    • I must say Jon Rappoport looks like a loonie with his “Matrix this Matrix that” notes everywhere, but https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2020/03/09/selling-fear-the-epidemic-experts-weigh-in/ was an interesting read. I saw this “War is a perfect analogy for Coronavirus” and then I saw a news article that said “just wait 3 months and it’ll be gone”. But I think the problem is that he is only reading from one side of news, it doesn’t mean Corona won’t be deadly. And yes, I know how much you’ll hate the word “won’t” because we can’t be sure, we are never sure… This is just what it is. Of course there is data, and the highest number of deaths is only about 4000. But you can see how little the governments do when this virus is around. We can only thing why that is, but it has both sides.
      And his argument “If you think you might sneeze in the next four months, work from home. Stay at home.” is what I think contradict with some of Martenson’s arguments, if I remember correctly. And it sounds silly.
      Of course, one of the commenter’s said “the intention of course is to push sales of nutritional products that will save you from the dreaded lethal virus.” Sounds reasonable but I’m not sure they would create a “virus epidemic” for that? Etc.
      Also, I saw one of the commenters said the same thing as you “It’s only lethal, but for immune compromised people.” Somebody in the comment section also mentioned how they, public reporters, have been increasing numbers etc. And I can see that. But I’m not sure what they are doing exactly, do they want fear? But most of the well-reasonable arguments come from Mortenson. You can also send him email if you want him to explain your argument himself, I’d recommend that. One of the commenters from a other side in Jon’s page answers
      Max: “The main problem is not that we all are going to die, but that the health system is really under stress, so we need to slow down the spread of the virus and the climax (that here should be within 2 weeks). I have friends working in hospitals here in Bergamo and they have a lot of people dying: usually older people affected already by other patologies. A lot means much more than usual: if your regional health system is ready to face 1500 cases of bilateral pneumonia and got 4000 doesn’t mean that millions are going to die, but thousand in a very narrow period of time.”
      Rtp says:
      March 10, 2020 at 9:33 am
      “Yes but Max, doctors are habitual liars. They deny obvious vaccine damage that they personally observe but have no dramas blaming an invisible virus anytime someone falls off a cliff.”
      Maverick: “AIDS isn’t real either its never had an actual virus attributed to it if you were to ask an ‘expert’ to show you the AIDS virus they couldn’t and they would be like ‘well it isn’t one said virus per say its a disease of the immune system’ AIDS literally means Aquired Immuno Defiecency Syndrome. So baasically your immune system compromised,……does that mean that 95% of people that are immune compromised have AIDS? If not why not….don’t you think there is a disconnect there? Going by the disease title and there is no real virus that causes it and it is a SYNDROME doesn’t that mean 99.95% of the population (yes everyone’s immune system is compromised just some more than others) Really? I wouldn’t take too heartly what these people say. They can’t even write properly and sound like they are emotionally wrecked. Though I can understand if you feel like you are under pressure of lies. But did you hear about Finland? They say Coronavirus goes away with Sauna, beer and soap. And the “Wait 3 months” news article was from Finland media too. And now EU is taking money so they can combat the coronavirus. And yes, the markets are in danger.

      One of the commenters quoted Marcus Aurelius.
      ““Accept whatever comes to you woven in the pattern of your destiny, for what could more aptly fit your needs?” Everything happens for a reason. It may not be a reason that suits your preferences, but nonetheless things happen according to what nature dictates. The minute you stop resisting what happens to you and realize that you might as well take things as they come, the freer you’ll feel.”

      https://nationalvanguard.org/2020/02/still-not-a-single-white-death-from-coronavirus/
      ” FRANCE REPORTS FIRST DEATH OUTSIDE ASIA… but the underlying story, from Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance, says the victim was an “80-year-old Chinese tourist.” Drudge, of course, is just scaring up clicks. But why does the rest of the Main Stream Media, and the medical Establishment, want to suppress a possibility that could relieve fears around the world: that the Coronavirus disproportionately impacts, and perhaps only kills, East Asians?”

      • And as I mentioned about the “corona goes away with beer, sauna, and soap” and the “3 months” articles, I did not mean I agree if those are true, but this is what’s on our media’s front page. Also a lot of talk about how banks handle the Coronavirus.

      • “lamberth says:
        March 8, 2020 at 9:03 pm
        At first I thought the corona virus PsyOp was designed to collapse the current economic / financial system.

        Revision.
        It’s designed to keep it going for a bit longer.
        Sustaining the unsustainable.
        Sustainability is a farce when the system itself is broken.”

        Hmm.

      • “silverman says:
        March 9, 2020 at 3:53 am
        It’s not sustaining the economic system, stock markets are melting, tourism is badly hit.
        There is no plan or conspiracy, as if governments know it’s a big lie, as if the medical profession is knowingly selling pseudo-science, they are as blind and as clueless and as believing as the general public. They don’t know what they are doing nor do they know why. They really believe the coronavirus pandemic is real, just like the media they are lying to, without knowing they are lying.

        The rich are losing money here, this is not some sinister plot on behalf of bankers etc. who are losing here. It’s a sociological phenomena rooted in virus mania, and an apocalyptic-millenarian doomsday zeitgeist (which we also see with climate change histrionics).
        We haven’t seen hysteria like this since the HIV/AIDS gibberish in the mid eighties. What makes the hysteria worse now, is the Internet and social media, which we didn’t have back in the eighties.”

      • Some comments from his site.

      • “Chinese doctors say autopsies of coronavirus victims suggest the deadly illness is “like a combination of SARS and AIDS” that can cause “irreversible” lung damage even if the patient recovers.

        The grim finding was reported on by Communist Party mouthpiece the Global Times on Friday, after a paper by Wuhan doctors published in the Journal of Forensic Medicine earlier in the week went viral on Chinese social media.”

      • !According to economist Sixten Korkman, the coronavirus hits the international economy more strongly than initially thought.

        “It’s not just about the coronavirus, it’s about the economy and the world’s stock markets being ripe for it,” Korkman said Monday night at Yale’s A studio.

        According to Korkman, another reason could have triggered a similar economic downturn. In his view, a “price revision” of about 20% is not uncommon.

        – Stock exchanges were vulnerable when stock prices have doubled in ten years, there is more debt than ever and risks have accumulated in leveraged investments.

        According to Korkman, the monetary policy of central banks does not help to panic.

        – This cannot be counteracted by the central bank, as there is no room for maneuver. Banks can help support corporate finance. However, interest cannot be played when it is already negative. Cord can’t push.

        Finland’s fiscal policy is currently slightly stimulating. It’s been blamed for being too loose, but Korkman says it’s not in the light of day. For him, the government could well consider measures that will support the economy in the long run.

        – If we think about Finland’s situation in five or ten years’ time, it does not necessarily make much difference. This is first and foremost a short-term problem. Unfortunately, this is not going away anymore, Korkman estimates.”

      • “Danske Bank economists are lowering their forecast for Finland’s economic growth this year and next. For this year, Danske forecasts economic growth of 0.3 percent, while the December forecast still promised an even growth rate of 1 percent.

        The cut in the forecast is due to the effects of the coronavirus and the economic downturn at the end of last year. However, the recession can still be avoided if consumers are not frightened by financial news, the bank estimates.

        The Finnish economy is hit by the coronavirus through the weakening of export demand and, in part, the decline in tourism.”

        Actually, there’s something else great in this, because people will prefer to buy stuff from their own country and stop being tourists all the time. Sounds good like that.

      • “No action taken on coronavirus threat in Kainuu – infection doctor tops fears
        According to the chief doctor, the virus is a problem, but in Finland, for example, excessive salt use is a more serious threat”
        24.1.2020″

      • “The spread of coronavirus does not yet make special arrangements at Centria University of Applied Sciences: “The situation is being monitored but we don’t panic”
        There are currently about two hundred Asians studying at the most international polytechnic in Finland, and about thirty of them are Chinese. ”
        23.1.2020

      • “Prepared for Coronavirus in South Karelia – Few Asian Tourists Come to Southeast Finland in Winter
        Two suspects of coronavirus in Chinese tourists were found on Friday in Ivalo.”
        24.1.2020
        “No need to panic, says Eastern Finland hotels and cottage rentals – no special measures have been taken by the coronavirus
        The everyday life of accommodation services goes as usual, even though viral infections have spoken in Finland and around the world.”

        No Chinese customers
        Isa-Maria Tervonen, Deputy Managing Director of Tahko Central Booking Agency, says that we pay attention to hand hygiene in the same way as in everyday life.

        Approximately 85 percent of the central booking agency’s customers are Finnish, and Chinese customers come only occasionally. Even so, there was no need to worry about virus infections.

        Nor has the coronavirus, which is renting holiday homes in Koli, caused any need for precautionary measures. Hand wear is wearing at a normal rate, says Visit Koli’s Pekka Tervo.

        – The coronavirus hasn’t changed our business. There are no international flights to Koli, like Lapland, so the situation is very different from there.”
        5.2.2020
        Saudi Arabia fears that camels will spread the deadly virus – camel-bearers must wear a face mask
        Camels are the most likely source of MERS, says the country’s Ministry of Agriculture. Over one hundred people have been killed by the MERS virus in two years. There is no effective treatment for the virus.
        https://www.who.int/emergencies/mers-cov/worldwide-reduction-in-mers-cases-and-deaths-since-2016/en/
        11.5.2014
        “Fear of a new pandemic spreading in Asia – expert mocks panic over MERS
        South Korea’s MERS virus infestation surged on Monday, with authorities reporting 23 new infections. However, according to a Finnish expert, this is a limited epidemic.”
        8.6.2015
        “MERS virus causes concern in China – SARS epidemic haunts the minds
        Our Asian correspondent, Sari Taussi, looks at how viral panic is spreading in human minds. On the other hand, the stricter tobacco law, which came into force at the same time, is of no interest to anyone.”
        1.6.2016

        I think I can see some connections here and there. Not gonna say anything though..

      • “CBP: 328 Illegal Aliens From China Have Been Caught At the U.S. Border Since Coronavirus Outbreak

        Brittany M. Hughes , @RealBrittHughes
        March. 5. 2020

        More than 300 illegal aliens from China have been apprehended after crossing the U.S.-Mexico border since the outbreak of the coronavirus, which has infected more than 90,000 people and killed more than 3,000 around the world.

        According to CBP, immigration officials are concerned that illegal immigration into the United States could make the disease, which is thought to most severely affect the elderly, even harder to contain, if it turns out any of those apprehended are infected.”

      • https://www.thepostmillennial.com/why-the-sudden-push-to-regulate-trusted-sources-of-news-in-canada/
        “In June 2018 the Canadian federal government initiated a review of the Telecommunications and Broadcasting Acts with the intent of getting guidance on how best to integrate the realities of the internet and global communications into the existing legislation.

        The project overview page with associated timeline is here.

        The panel released its report on January 29, 2020, entitled Canada’s Communications Future: Time to Act.

        Weighing in at 235 pages, the report contains 97 recommendations for an overhaul of Canada’s internet, telecom and communications laws.

        It can sometimes be difficult to distill the salient points out of the hundreds of pages by a government panel of experts. What may be helpful, is to first look at who is in favour of the recommendations in the BTLR.

        Foremost, the incumbent, and flailing mainstream media outlets like these proposals because the BTLR provides a framework for regulating internet content and forcing social media platforms like Facebook and Twitter to promote content produced by them:

        “Recommendation 73: We recommend that to promote the discoverability of Canadian news content, the CRTC impose the following requirements, as appropriate, on media aggregation and media sharing undertakings:

        links to the websites of Canadian sources of accurate, trusted, and reliable sources of news with a view to ensuring a diversity of voices; and
        prominence rules to ensure visibility and access to such sources of news.””

    • https://www.thepostmillennial.com/why-the-sudden-push-to-regulate-trusted-sources-of-news-in-canada/
      “Governments worldwide have made some serious missteps in handling coronavirus. In the US the CDC has only conducted approximately 500 COVID-19 tests nationally. This is a travesty, and it will impact Canada if and when the outbreak tips over into pandemic level south of the border.

      Yet, none of this is on the mainstream media’s radar. The highest quality coverage, of the non-tin-foil hat variety, is coming out of Chris Martenson. Mr. Martenson has his PhD in pathology and epidemiology from Duke University, and he has been putting out daily updates of the status of of coronavirus globally.

      These are the highest quality reports and analysis of anything I’ve seen anywhere. What does it have to do with the BTLR and the CBC wanting legislation to control “trusted sources” of news?

      Well, were that to be the law of the land, Martenson would almost certainly not be designated one. Not in the US, and not here. In fact in his Feb 27th report, Martenson cautioned:

      “You may not be getting useful high-quality information from the US task force [read: “trusted news sources” –markjr] who is now going to be scrubbing health officials and scientists warnings. So it’s very important that I continue to do what I do but you have to be ready for this as well these channels and stations may well be taken off and we have to be ready for that as …I’m going to do this as long as I am allowed to … but I may not be allowed to do that for long”

      Martenson’s Wikipedia page, which had been live for over 10 years was deleted by editors around the same time as coverage of the Coronavirus started gaining traction, ostensibly for failing to meet “notability requirements”.

      The US response so far to coronavirus has been to appoint the Vice President to head the government response, who’s first action was to make it a requirement that all state, health and scientific messaging around it be cleared by his office.

      That’s what “regulating trusted sources of news” is starting to look like, and with the advent of COVID-19 the initiative may move from theoretical pondering about it, a la BTLR framework and CBC’s open letter, to hastily convene government impositions around narrative control.

      The goal of such controls is not to protect the public from fake news as much as it is to insulate our various governments from scrutiny around their own incompetence in their policy responses to what is now a global epidemic.”

      • This goes back to the “https://wikipediaisevil.wordpress.com/”, in which, Wikipedia goes trough a “trusted source”.
        “Winston Smith was part of a larger collective of people (although he never talked to them, he only knew them by sight) whose job it was to rewrite history.”

        “What happened in the unseen labyrinth to which the pneumatic tubes led, he did not know in detail, but he did know in general terms. As soon as all the corrections which happened to be necessary in any particular number of The Times had been assembled and collated, that number would be reprinted, the original copy destroyed, and the corrected copy placed on the files in its stead.

        This process of continuous alteration was applied not only to newspapers, but to books, periodicals, pamphlets, posters, leaflets, films, sound-tracks, cartoons, photographs — to every kind of literature or documentation which might conceivably hold any political or ideological significance. Day by day and almost minute by minute the past was brought up to date.

        In this way every prediction made by the Party could be shown by documentary evidence to have been correct, nor was any item of news, or any expression of opinion, which conflicted with the needs of the moment, ever allowed to remain on record. All history was a palimpsest, scraped clean and reinscribed exactly as often as was necessary. In no case would it have been possible, once the deed was done, to prove that any falsification had taken place.

        The largest section of the Records Department, far larger than the one on which Winston worked, consisted simply of persons whose duty it was to track down and collect all copies of books, newspapers, and other documents which had been superseded and were due for destruction. A number of The Times which might, because of changes in political alignment, or mistaken prophecies uttered by Big Brother, have been rewritten a dozen times still stood on the files bearing its original date, and no other copy existed to contradict it. Books, also, were recalled and rewritten again and again, and were invariably reissued without any admission that any alteration had been made.

        Even the written instructions which Winston received, and which he invariably got rid of as soon as he had dealt with them, never stated or implied that an act of forgery was to be committed: always the reference was to slips, errors, misprints, or misquotations which it was necessary to put right in the interests of accuracy.”

    • “Let me explain. You bring your car to a good repair shop. The mechanics hook it up to a device and run a test to diagnose what’s causing the car to stall. Who says their tests are accurate? At some point in the past, these diagnostic procedures have been vetted, to make sure they work properly.

      And sure enough, when the mechanics say, “We’ve found the problem,” and when they correct that problem, you drive the car and it doesn’t stall anymore. This is called a real-life result.

      This is not the situation re the PCR. Its proponents claim it can count how much virus is in a patient’s body—how much of a particular virus. But where is the proof, in real-life terms, that the PCR can do that? How was that proof ever established?

      When I say proof, I don’t mean technical mumbo-jumbo. I’m not referring to the highly dense language these scientists use among themselves. I’m talking about real live human patients, and results.

      After all, if the PCR is being used to diagnose people, and if the results are being used to count the number of coronavirus cases in various countries, and if the number of cases forms the basis for, say, locking down the whole of Italy in a mass quarantine…THE TEST IS IMPORTANT, WOULDN’T YOU SAY?

      I have seen no wide-ranging proof that the PCR was ever checked properly, when it was first introduced, to show it could do what researchers say it can do.”

    • Off The Cuff: The End Of China’s Exceptionalism?
      The impact of the coronavirus strikes at China’s Achilles heel
      by Adam Taggart
      “Beneath its facade as a rising superpower, the social contract within China has been deteriorating. And now with the covid-19 virus dealing a 1-2 punch of a public health crisis and an economic crisis, the populace may be nearing a breaking point.

      They have traded freedom and fair treatment in exchange for an ever-rising lifestyle. But now that the government can no longer guarantee continued prosperity, and may be responsible for thousands (or more?) deaths by initially denying the coronavirus crisis, will people remain tolerant of its authoritarianism?”

    • The question is if it can spread in summer, China says no….
      Also it is still only a killer of people over 60, or those with health problems.

      Still it is enough to cripple international tourism, large events, restaurants and trade, reduce fuel/oil price, then countries relying on oil for trade loose income, also welfare states will have to support all people who loose jobs or spend weeks in hospital, then you have the stock markets plummeting, whose value had been used in cascading financial fund schemes……this will be worse than the 2008 banking crisis as its a failure of the system finance depends on.

      • Indeed. It looks like my ‘prophecy’ that the dollar could crash before the end of the decade has chances to be fulfilled…

  3. To C.T.
    No, fuck you….
    Cowering in your turd-world mansion afraid of the flu.
    Hitler, Rockwell and Pierce would have nothing to do with your spic ass!
    Adios mariconcito.

    • Bye Saoirse. And never come back…

  4. 8 billion people, all infected.
    1% killed means 80 million dead.
    5% killed means 400 million dead.


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